"Intelligence drives operations" -- a principle drilled into me as a Marine and Guardsman, and one that has shaped every phase of my career from military service to civilian cybersecurity and threat research. Skipping the intel phase doesn't save time; it just displaces the cost downstream, typically at the most operationally inopportune moment.
Operation Epic Fury is the current proof point: the ODNI's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released prior to the onset of hostilities, does not list Iran among the nations capable of striking the U.S. homeland with ICBMs, citing only China, Russia, North Korea, and Pakistan. The assessment existed, was unclassified, and was publicly accessible. The Director of the National Counterterrorism Center resigned over it in March 2026. Now the region is destabilized, the Strait of Hormuz is contested, and 50% of Iran's missile launchers are reportedly still intact after five weeks of kinetic operations. That is what happens when intelligence assessments are available, documented, and not fully reflected in operational decision-making.
To be clear, this isn't a political take; it's an analytical one. The same standard applies regardless of who's in office or which flag is flying over the operation. Intelligence informs decisions, and when that step gets bypassed, overruled, or just outright ignored, the operational cost is predictable, documented, and avoidable -- and sometimes paid in lives.
To the intel and cyber analysts still in the trenches: keep doing the work. Document everything, maintain your integrity, and don't let the noise compromise your objectivity. The assessments you produce matter, even when it feels like no one is listening. Stay sharp, stay grounded, and keep moving forward.
S/F,
Stone
References:
DNI Gabbard Releases 2026 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/press-releases-2026/4142-pr-03-26
Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, March 2025. https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf
2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment - DIA. https://armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/2025_dia_statement_for_the_record.pdf